Market Insights | Part 1

EDITOR’S NOTE

Welcome to another Monday!

A day for making big decisions, and taking stock of our successes, challenges and most importantly, our lessons from the week before.

For many Kenyans, agriculture is either a means of improving their livelihoods, an area they are curious to learn more about, or something they might want to explore as a future business.

Whatever the motivation, understanding agriculture and where the opportunities really lie can feel like a journey in itself.

That’s where we come in. Each Monday, we’ll bring you useful insights, ideas and opportunities to help you make better sense of the sector.

When you think about agriculture, what crop or animal comes to mind?

Maize? Avocados? Poultry?

Agriculture has a wide range of value chains to explore, across both crops and livestock. And we often hear stories from people who have invested in them, some who made good money and others who lost it.

When it comes to investing, we tend to assume that niche and export value chains are where the biggest opportunities lie. But what actually makes an agricultural opportunity worth investing in?

In this series, we’ll look beyond the headlines and deeper into the stories. We’ll unpack where the real opportunities lie, the risks that are often overlooked, and the business decisions that can determine whether an investment becomes a profitable enterprise or an expensive lesson.

Spend enough time around Kenyan farmers and you'll eventually hear one phrase: "Nilichomeka."

Everyone has a reason.

Sometimes it's fake seed. Sometimes it's a drought. Sometimes it's market gluts. And sometimes those reasons are completely valid.

But every so often, the real mistake was made long before the first seed went into the ground.

Most of us grow up seeing agriculture as something you do because you have land. So, when we finally decide to invest, the first question feels obvious: What should I farm? Tomatoes? Avocados? Poultry? Dairy?

Too often, people venture into agriculture after seeing stories of extraordinary returns: "What I made from one acre" or "Produce this crop and make a million in three months." Excitement spreads. More people plant the same crop. More people rear the same animal.

We've seen it before with quail, dragon fruit, and countless other ‘next big things’.

What happens next is like clockwork: production increases, markets become saturated and prices fall. And once again, the familiar phrase returns:

"Nilichomeka."

So what’s the lesson? Follow the money. Don't follow the hype.

One of the biggest misconceptions in agriculture is believing that producing a good crop automatically creates a profitable enterprise, however that is false.

What production does is that it creates a product. The actual profit comes from understanding the market, and that is why successful agribusinesses start by understanding demand. Who is buying, what are they buying, what are the gaps and what problems are customers willing to pay to solve.

When people say start from the market, they do not simply mean finding a buyer after harvest. They mean understanding demand before production begins.

Start with mama mbogas, talk to restaurant owners, walk through wholesale markets and observe what works.

You may find that your biggest opportunity isn’t actually in production - it may be in aggregation, storage, processing, distribution, or just connecting farmers to reliable markets.

The agribusinesses that endure are the ones that understand where value is created, and position themselves to serve it.

The goal is not simply to grow more, but to build a profitable enterprise.

In the issues ahead, we'll explore where the opportunities lie, where the risks are hidden, and the business decisions that separate successful agribusinesses from costly mistakes, helping you understand not just where to put your money, but why.